The Next Cold War?

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I have long maintained that China and the US will fight a war before the midpoint of the century. I believe this to be true due to my perceived attitude and intentions of the Chinese government concerning Taiwan, China’s Military and oil. Beijing is inflexible in their desires to achieve their stated goals and it is for this reason that I perceive war on the horizon.

Taiwan is, in the minds of the Chinese Government, a rouge state that has tried to break away from the rest of the country. In their minds the independence of Taiwan is tantamount to South Carolina declaring that they are no longer a part of the Union. Beijing feels justified, just as Washington did, in demanding that the breakaway province come back into the fold and will do whatever it takes to return their country back into the fold. China has made it quite clear that there is only one china and that any further moves towards independence will be dealt with swiftly and harshly. The official media of china is often quoting senior military officials that insinuate that the military is ready for the reclamation of the island. US administrations and military leaders have long thought of this as nothing more than blustering hot air because China lacked a few very important items needed to retake Taiwan namely naval capabilities.

China has lacked the amphibious lift capabilities needed to move large numbers of troops to the island quickly. This obstacle is becoming less and less a factor with the increased efficiency of the PLA’s airborne units. Cargo and heavy equipment will still be needed in the combat zone and can be delivered to ports that have been secured by the airborne units. China has, in the last several years, demonstrated a relatively small but successful sea-borne assault capability through exercises across the straights from Taiwan. Strategic Deterrence is also seen as a way of preventing China from invading the Republic of China. The United States has treaty obligations binding America to defend the island of Taiwan. This threat has long been considered the deterring force as China had no real way to take on the entire US Military. With the addition of the Tpye-094 fleet ballistic submarines to the Peoples Navy early next year, China will now have the ability to launch a nuclear missile that can reach anywhere in the world.

China’s dependence on imported oil is another dynamic issue that will lead the two nations into a direct conflict. Oil is the substance that drives all economies. Without oil there is no transportation and without transportation goods will not reach their intended markets and food products will perish before they get to their destinations. It limits trade to a regional basis at best. China is expanding at an enormous rate and its economy is growing as well leading to a higher demand for oil. The largest net oil importer in the world today is no longer the United States, but The People Republic of China. This has lead to a negative effect on the US economy as demonstrated by the principle of supply and demand in that when the demand for a product raises so does the price of the item. The United States does have the advantage in this area in the form of Texas and Alaska. America can, with proper controls, safeguards and measures, explore, drill and pump for oil in our own country whereas China has no large fields that they can develop. China’s only viable option to develop their own independent source of oil is to annex the Spratly Islands chain, a region that according the CIA World Fact Book “they are claimed in their entirety by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam, while portions are claimed by Malaysia and the Philippines. The 45 islands are occupied by relatively small numbers of military forces from China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. Brunei has established a fishing zone that overlaps a southern reef, but has not made any formal claim.” This is a recipe for conflict if the suspected oil fields under this area prove to be even half as productive as it is believed to be.

If China wishes to achieve all of their stated goals, they will have to secure oil, reclaim Taiwan and be able to fend off any American or international intervention. They build up and modernization of their military, the recent leap in missile technology and their rapid economic growth are all indicators that China is a threat that should not be taken lightly. The EP-3 Incident showed an aggressive willingness to push the US military to the brink to gauge reactions of not only the military and the government but also that of the media. The United States needs to prepare for this possible conflict by examining the state of our military and its capabilities as well as the future needs of the Navy, Air Force, Army and Marine Corps. China is in a large scale military buildup and would most likely see US reactions as the start of a new arms race, a race we can ill afford to loose. For these reasons I see two choices, an armed conflict with the Peoples Republic of China or capitulation to their desires, including the abandonment of a freely elected democratic government and its people. How this war will be fought, either through open warfare or through another cold war and all that entails, remains to be seen.


Vulture 6